Working closely with our long term big pharma clients, we have developed nQuery Bayes. nQuery Bayes provides researchers access to a suite of tables that allows them to formalize the use of Bayesian methodology into their clinical trial framework, most notably Bayesian Assurance, Bayesian Posterior Credibility Intervals & Mixed Bayesian Likelihood.
The short answer is, using Assurance allows you to discover how likely it is to see the “True probability of success" from a trial, before you start it.
How does Bayesian Assurance work?
Expert opinions, together with information from previous experiments or work in similar fields holds many benefits. These can be elicited and then integrated with each other plus prior data using the Sheffield Elicitation Framework (SHELF).
nQuery Bayes allows you to easily combine all this information to receive some valuable decision making information in the form of an Assurance (A) calculation.
The benefits of Bayesian Assurance formalizing Sensitivity Analysis
Bayesian Assurance provides key contextual information on what is likely to happen over the total range possible values rather than the small number of fixed points used in a sensitivity analysis.
Assurance is vital contextual tool in the planning toolbox. It places uncertainty at the heart of sample size determination.
What other industry challenges can nQuery Bayes Address?
The cost of failed clinical trials is high and the industry needs to focus on ways to reduce the continuously high failure rate. Companies need to make better decisions - back the best trials and put resources in the right place
nQuery Bayes (an nQuery add-on module) allows Bayesian calculations to address these issues. Currently in nQuery Bayes, the following methods are available to researchers:
What are the benefits to researchers?
Researchers are now able to:
● Use prior information from pilot studies and other sources to make quicker and better decisions
● Discover the likelihood of a “positive” trial outcome and then make better decisions on what trials to back